Who knows?

I'm short of time today so I'll simply point you in the direction of Tony Blair's speech to the EU Parliament yesterday. It is 30 minutes long and sets out his view of the current "crisis" and his vision for the future of the EU based on "modern social policy" (i.e. the "third way"). It must be said, Blair is a great orator and clearly has good speech-writers.

BBC website: Blair's speech

If you don't have time to sit through it all, the BBC's summary is here, and the text version here.

Other articles on Blair's speech:
EU must reform or it will risk massive failure, Blair warns - Times, UK

Blair finds a little heaven in euro hell - Guardian, UK

An interesting divergence of opinion on the current situation regarding the EU budget is evident when comparing these two articles:

As he holds the European flag aloft, the PM can thank his lucky stars. (The Times, UK)

European leaders intensify criticism of Blair's priorities. (New York Times, USA)

In The Times comment piece by Anatole Kaletsky, Blair is painted as the man to whom European leaders are turning. With the Franco-German leadership of the EU weakened by the referendum defeat in France and Chancellor Schroeder's likely departure in the Autumn, a new direction is needed for Europe. And that direction, according to Anatole Kaletsky, is likely to come from Blair.

"The obvious candidate to fill this leadership vacuum is Britain under Tony Blair. Mr Blair'’s Third Way rhetoric may seem half-baked and self-contradictory in the context of British or American politics, but trying to find a compromise between capitalism and social democracy is what mainstream politics in every European country is about. Moreover, Mr Blair, while he may be no great economic or political theorist, has a track record unique among the major European leaders, of running a Third Way model with a modicum of success. "

In this picture it is Chirac who is increasingly isolated:

"In fact, it now looks like France, rather than Britain, will become the odd man out in Europe, with President Chirac's isolation only underlined by the insignificance of the only two allies he can still depend on Belgium and Luxembourg."

However, a vastly different image is painted by the New York Times piece. Blair is described as having "become increasingly isolated since the [summit] meeting" last week. This is backed up by reference to a speech of the President of the EU Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso:

"He ... rejected Mr. Blair's call for an immediate rethinking of how the European Union spends its money, including reductions in farm subsidies, which largely benefit France, as a condition for striking a deal on a new financial package for 2007-13. Instead, he urged an immediate agreement before any debate to avoid "paralysis" in the union.

"He said Britain should respect a deal struck in 2002 by all European Union leaders, including Mr. Blair, which fixes farm spending until 2012."

This conflicts with the BBC's report on this very same speech which states that:

"Mr Barroso also told the European Parliament that EU leaders needed to look at the priorities and structure of the disputed long-term budget.

His comments will be interpreted as support for Britain's view that there should be a fundamental review, says BBC European affairs analyst William Horsley."

I've not found a copy of Mr Barroso's speech so I can't yet be sure of what he said. But leaving that aside, the NYT is, I believe, wrong to suggest that Blair is isolated. In fact, it seems to stem from a limited understanding of the current situation. Not only was Blair explicitly backed by a number of European leaders (those of Sweden, Holland, Spain etc), but he has also received the support of Angela Merkel, Schroeder's likely replacement in Germany. The NYT refers to Merkel's support, but seems to have not thought through its consequences.

Furthermore, it is not just the British media who sees Blair as having been strengthened by the budget debacle. This article in Le Monde speaks of Chirac having been "weakened", with the British PM being described (in my dodgy translation) as "the new strong man of Europe".

It seems to me then, that the UK, and Blair in particular, is not being left out in the cold, and that Anatole Katelsky's vision is the more accurate.

An earlier post by me on this subject here.

Another article in The Times suggesting that the UK is not alone in wishing to get rid of EU subsidies: Media in Germany warmed by Blair's plea to the people. The article also backs up the BBC's interpretation of Barroso's speech.

Thanks to those who have left comments. They're greatly appreciated as they let me know people are actually reading the blog!

A comment piece in The Times a few days a go makes interesting reading: Zimbabwe: the West blinked first.

Michael Holman disagrees with my view that Thabo Mbeki, the President of South Africa should take a firmer line with Mugabe, suggesting that the UN should be the body that takes action. The UN, however, is unlikely to do so. While the Security Council is dominated by the larger developed countries, the UN itself obviously has a more diverse membership including newer, less developed and smaller countries who are very protective of their sovereignty. They would be unlikely to want to see the UN interfering with the internal running of the country where, while there are clearly humanitarian issues, the state does not represent a threat to any other and where the regime in power still retains support from countries such as South Africa.

While Holman is right to suggest that the wider international community has a large role to play in dealing with the Zimbabwe situation, Mbeki must still register his disapproval of the Mugabe regime. His continued acceptance of the tactics of Mugabe is disgraceful and allows the Zimbabwean President to claim that the criticism of him is not based on sound principle but on "neo-colonialism".

More on Zimbabwe: UN to check on "clean up

The unfairness of the Common Agricultural Policy is well demonstrated by this article on the plight of African farmers. It amazes me that while at the G8 summit there will be discussions about how best to give aid to Africa, one of the best ways to help the continent, eradicating farm subsidies in both the US and the EU, is not on the agenda.

President Bush, in his inauguration speech earlier this year, stated that:

"All who live in tyranny and hopelessness can know: the United States will not ignore your oppression, or excuse your oppressors. When you stand for your liberty, we will stand with you."

At the time it was felt by many that this was aimed at countries such as Iran, North Korea and Cuba: states that had poor relations with the USA. However, there have been increasing signs that the US government intends to take a firm line on democracy with those countries generally regarded to be friends of the US: Saudi Arabia and Egypt to give two good examples. In a speech in Egypt yesterday, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, has called for democratic reforms in all Arab countries:

"For 60 years, my country, the United States, pursued stability at the expense of democracy in this region here in the Middle East, and we achieved neither. Now we are taking a different course. We are supporting the democratic aspirations of all people."

She made specific reference to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, calling on those countries to allow dissenting voices to be heard rather than locking up those who disagree with the government.

This is a welcome move from the Bush Administration, removing one possible criticism of the President's call for greater democracy in the world - hypocrisy. If America had continued to avoid criticising certain countries because they were allies of the US, the lack of consistency would have undermined the demands it made on other countries for reform.

For more on this, see the New York Times article here.

Lleyton Hewitt made relatively trouble free progress into round 2 of Wimbledon yesterday, which was excellent news for my bet! Roger Federer also cruised through in straight sets, making his task look ominously easy. Tim Henman begins his challenge today, so good luck to him.

If you're in London today and have some spare time why not head to the Exhibition Road Music Day:

"On 21 June, the Exhibition Road area in South Kensington will come alive as never before when all the institutions in this unique neighbourhood come together for the first time to present a day and night filled with special music performances. In the spirit of Fête de la Musique all performances will be live and free. All are welcome to enjoy the music and explore new spaces and venues."

For more information, visit the website.

Recently I seem to be backing Tony Blair on many issues - as a non-labour voter this makes me feel uncomfortable. The main issue has been the EU rebate/budget. Now he is pushing for a total ban on smoking in public places, and I once again agree with him.

I spent a few days in Dublin last summer and found going to the pub to be a much more enjoyable experience than it is over here. This wasn't just because Ireland's a great place to have a drink, it was also because you wouldn't come home stinking of smoke. I should make it clear, though I suspect it's pretty obvious, that I'm a non-smoker. A smoky atmosphere can ruin a nice quiet pint and is also not good for your health. If someone wants to smoke, then that's up to them. But to inflict it on other people in a public place is not acceptable. The risks you wish to take with your own health are a personal decision, however it is a different matter when your decisions increase risks for others.

This is why I would agree with The Observer's leader when it says, in relation to a ban, "There can be no excuse for not going ahead."

Wimbledon starts on Monday and the odds are clearly against Henman winning. While grass is generally seen as his best surface, he has had an up-and-down year so far. Not surprisingly, I find it difficult to look past Federer, who is the clear, odds-on favourite at betfair.com. There are a few doubts surrounding him after a not totally convincing performance on the grass at Halle in Germany. He still won there however, and is usually able to step up the quality of his play when he needs to.

I don't like to back the favourite in anything though so I'm going to stick my neck on the line and go for Lleyton Hewitt. The former champion is getting back to something like his best and at 24-1 is a tempting bet for me.

Knowing my luck though, he'll lose in the first round later today!

All hell has broken loose at the EU summit. The deep divide (you could call it a yawning chasm and not be over exaggerating) between the UK and French positions on the EU budget has lead to a bitter row, with Blair blaming the French and with the French blaming Blair. The BBC has put together some great quotes.

The UK is not isolated in its dislike of the current proposals and in its desire to see a reduction (if not abolition) of the Common Agricultural policy, which amounts for 40% of the EU budget. As I have said in previous comments on this issue, the rebate is justified because of the current budget allocations. Without the rebate, the UK would have paid 15 times as much into the EU as France (and with it, it has still paid 2.5 times as much). A UK official told the BBC that, "The rebate is a symptom of the problem, not the problem itself," and I would agree.

The "old guard" of Europe, Chirac and Schroder, are weak and on their way out. Schroder is likely to lose the next German election to Angela Merkel, who has stated that it is unreasonable to expect the UK to cut its rebate without some change to the CAP (see this article). Chirac will retire in 2007, his likely replacement being Nicolas Sarkozy, a politician who has adopted a very UK/American style of politics by bringing his family into campaigning, something that is generally not done in France. Both, though Chirac mainly, are trying to regain popular support through the "safe" tactic of attacking the UK's rebate. This article (which I read through a google translation!) in the French paper Le Monde would suggest the plan is not working for Chirac.

The only thing that seems to be agreed on is that there will be no agreement on the EU budget until after the UK's presidency, which starts on 30th June. With Germany's election looming in the autumn it is likely that Chirac will lose his biggest ally before the battle recommences at the start of next year and will surely face an impossible fight to avoid some sort of renegotiation on the CAP. The old guard is losing its grip on Europe, which can only be a good thing for the UK and, I would suggest, the EU in general.

Special mention for the Bangladesh cricket team after their historic win over Australia in a one-day international. Congratulations to them. More on this here.

As you may have guessed from other posts (yesterdays being a good example) I have exams coming up which means I'm going to be (1) short on time and (2) high on stress. It is possible that there will be more posts like yesterdays (i.e. letting off steam) but I'll try not to drown in self-pity!

A nice song to finish with: "Google"